Florida Fuel Consumption: Are EVs Making a Dent?

After years of thinking about it, my wife and I finally made the switch to an electric car today. We don’t drive much, so it didn’t make sense (cents?) to pay a big premium upfront for an EV. But in 2025, there are many more options to choose from—some of which are priced below comparable cars with combustion engines.

As one does when making such a switch, I dug up data to see if EVs are having a noticeable impact on Florida’s fuel consumption. As most people reading this will know, Florida pays for much of its non-toll road building program with fuel taxes. And although Florida is the state with the 2nd most registered EVs, there is not a lot of information on how its EV adoption is impacting fuel consumption.

This analysis is based on data freely available on the web:

• Certified fuel gallons from the Florida Department of Revenue
• Population by county from the Florida EDR
• VMT by county from FDOT’s mileage reports

Background Trends

Before we delve into the fuel statistics, let’s cover what has been happening to population and driving habits in the most populous counties in Florida over the past five years (i.e., 2019 through 2024).

Several key trends are apparent:

• Florida's population and VMT have grown rapidly over the past five years, a notable trend considering it was already the 3rd most populous state in 2019.
• Out of the counties above, growth has been strongest in the SW Florida counties of Lee, Sarasota, and Collier. Despite population declines, Miami-Dade and Pinellas Counties have seen VMT increases comparable to the state average.
• This disparity between population and VMT growth suggests an increase in per capita miles driven throughout the state.

Fuel Consumption Trends

Next, I analyzed fuel consumption trends between the third quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2024, the latest available data on certified taxable gallons in Florida.

The topline finding is that Florida continues to tax more gallons of fuel than before. The state as a whole certified 2.92B gallons of motor fuel and diesel in 2024 Q3, compared to 2.86B gallons in the same period of 2019, a two percent increase.

However, this increase is well short of the population or VMT increases seen in the same interval. It is also not reflective of what's happening in the most populous counties outside of SW Florida, where fewer gallons were taxed in 2024 Q3 than in 2019 Q3.

When you account for population, and especially for VMT, the reduction is more drastic. On a per-capita basis, only Miami-Dade and Collier Counties experienced modest increases in fuel consumption.

All counties show a reduction in gallons consumed per VMT, with decreases ranging from 0.7% in Sarasota County to a striking 15.1% in Pinellas County. While vehicle efficiency has been steadily improving for a few decades, this five-year decline is potentially unprecedented in scale.

Implications for the Future

The trends observed in wealthier counties, such as Pinellas, Collier, and Seminole, are likely to make their way to other counties as the price difference between EVs and combustion engine cars narrows while the range and diversity of EVs continue to improve.

Without alternative revenue sources, the State Transportation Trust Fund may soon face a decline in its primary non-federal funding source. Furthermore, even with stable fuel sales, Florida's rising population and VMT will strain existing infrastructure, necessitating further investment to meet growing demand.

The future of transportation funding in Florida presents a complex challenge. While the specific solutions remain to be seen, for now I'll take comfort in skipping trips to the gas station (except for Wawa café con leche).